Sacramento, CA – As speculation swirls around Kamala Harris’s political future, a debate has emerged regarding whether she would find greater success in a bid for California governor or a third attempt at the presidency. Supporters and detractors alike are weighing the potential advantages and disadvantages of each path.
With Governor Gavin Newsom’s term ending, a gubernatorial run presents Harris with the opportunity to immediately position herself as a front-runner, avoiding the crowded field expected in the 2028 presidential primaries. Her extensive political resume, which includes roles as San Francisco district attorney, California attorney general, U.S. senator, and vice president, gives her a distinct advantage over potential state rivals.
While Harris has remained relatively tight-lipped about her plans, hinting at a continued presence in the political arena, Newsom has publicly acknowledged her potential dominance in a California gubernatorial primary, contingent on her decision to run. Newsom emphasized the importance of a clear “Why?” for any candidate considering the governorship, a sentiment echoed by many political analysts.
However, a presidential bid would require Harris to overcome the challenge of convincing national Democrats that she remains the party’s future, particularly after the 2024 presidential election. The specter of President Joe Biden’s age and perceived vulnerabilities also looms, potentially complicating her path.
Democratic consultant Bill Burton highlights Harris’s established fundraising network and voter recognition as assets in a presidential primary. However, the pressing question for Democrats remains: who can effectively counter the “MAGA movement?” Some, like Adam Green of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, believe Harris’s moment has passed, suggesting voters seek “authentic outsiders.”
Conversely, a return to California allows Harris to leverage her “favorite daughter” status. The state’s substantial economy and its role as a focal point of resistance against Trump’s policies could elevate her national profile. However, she would face a crowded field, including former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and former Biden administration health secretary Xavier Becerra.
Democratic consultant Roger Salazar believes Harris would have a higher probability of success in a California race, citing her established electoral record in the state. Republican consultant Kevin Madden, however, remains skeptical of her chances in either arena, noting the rarity of presidential candidates rebounding after multiple losses.
California’s unique “jungle primary” system, where all candidates appear on a single ballot and the top two advance to the general election, adds another layer of complexity. This system could pit Harris against a fellow Democrat in the general election, potentially replicating the challenges she would face in a presidential primary.
San Francisco-based Democratic consultant Eric Jaye notes that while Harris enjoys considerable support among Democrats, she also elicits strong negative reactions from a segment of the electorate. He cautions that her path to victory in California is not guaranteed, given the potential for a divided Democratic vote.
Furthermore, Harris would inherit a state grappling with significant challenges, including a homelessness crisis, a budget deficit, an insurance crisis, and the threat of wildfires. Republicans are also poised to highlight California’s high cost of living and liberal social policies, potentially impacting her electoral prospects.
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