NOAA Forecasts Above-Average 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Gretna, LA – Just ten days before the official start of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its forecast, predicting an above-average number of tropical storms and hurricanes for the year. The announcement was made Thursday morning at the Jefferson Parish Emergency Operations Center in Gretna, Louisiana, a location chosen to mark the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina and highlight the region’s preparedness efforts.
Acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm and National Weather Service director Ken Graham presented the findings, which incorporate research from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, and National Weather Service.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially spans from June 1st to November 30th, with peak activity typically occurring between mid-August and mid-October. An average season sees 14 named storms, seven of which become hurricanes, and three of those intensifying into major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher with sustained winds of at least 111 mph).
While each season varies, scientific evidence in recent years has indicated that climate change contributes to the increasing intensity of these storms, fueled by warmer ocean waters. Researchers are actively investigating the link between rising global temperatures and more destructive tropical weather patterns.
NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook serves as a crucial framework for communities in storm-prone areas to proactively prepare for the upcoming season. The agency may issue updated forecasts later in the season if their initial assessments change.
Last year, NOAA anticipated an above-average season, forecasting 8 to 13 hurricanes. The 2024 season ultimately produced 11 hurricanes, with five reaching major hurricane status. Notably, five hurricanes made landfall in the continental U.S., including Helene and Milton, both of which struck as major hurricanes.
This year’s forecast aligns with predictions from Colorado State University’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software team, which also anticipated an above-average hurricane season for 2025. While expecting stronger and more frequent storms than a typical year, CSU projected fewer storms than the active 2024 season.
Levi Silvers, leading the research team at Colorado State, emphasized that their predictions are largely based on NOAA’s global observations, particularly in the oceans, leading to generally consistent conclusions. CSU’s forecast calls for 17 named storms, nine of which are expected to become hurricanes, with three reaching major hurricane intensity. This level of hurricane activity would be approximately 125% of the seasonal average recorded between 1991 and 2020.
The anticipated higher activity is primarily attributed to warmer sea surface temperatures, which provide the necessary fuel for storm development. However, the Colorado State report also noted “considerable uncertainty” regarding the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle during the hurricane season. El Niño typically suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic, while La Niña conditions are more favorable for storm formation. With La Niña conditions recently transitioning to a neutral phase, researchers suggest this could create an environment conducive to hurricane development in the absence of El Niño.
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